PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates reset lower by 2–4bp across the curve; moves are modest and broadly parallel.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:15 PM reset are down 2–4bp from the previous notice, with little change to the overall curve shape.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.43% (-4bp)
- → 3y — 5.75% (-4bp)
- → 5y — 5.93% (-4bp)
- → 10y — 6.32% (-3bp)
- → 25y — 6.85% (-2bp)
- → 50y — 6.62% (-3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Parallel move — The curve is 2–4bp lower across all key maturities, with the front end and belly (1–7y) down 4bp, and the long end (25–50y) down 2–3bp.
CONTEXT
- → UK inflation — August CPI rose to 3.10% y/y (in line with forecast, up from 2.90%), with core inflation steady at 2.60% y/y.
- → Energy prices — News flow highlights higher petrol and diesel costs as the main driver of the inflation uptick.
- → Market focus — Attention is on the upcoming Fed and Bank of England rate decisions, with no clear evidence of a single dominant driver for today's modest gilt rally.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 19:00 — US Fed Interest Rate Decision (forecast: 4.0%).
- → Tomorrow 12:00 — Bank of England Rate Decision (forecast: 3.75%), plus MPC minutes and vote split.
A modest parallel shift lower for PWLB rates; all eyes now turn to the Fed and Bank of England decisions for the next direction.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only petrol prices moved as smoothly as the PWLB curve.