PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed at the AM reset, with moves of just 1–3bp across the curve and no material shift in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates edged 1–3bp lower at the short end and 1bp higher at the long end in the 09:28 AM reset, with no significant curve movement.
PWLB curve barely budges as inflation ticks up
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.47% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.79% | -3bp |
| 5y | 5.97% | -2bp |
| 10y | 6.35% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.87% | +1bp |
| 50y | 6.65% | +1bp |
Curve shows a very mild steepening, with short rates down 2–3bp and long rates up 1bp.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
Context
- → UK inflation (CPI YoY) rose to 3.10% — In line with forecast, up from 2.90% last month; energy and motor fuel cited as main drivers.
- → Producer prices (PPI Output YoY) at 3.70% — Above forecast (3.30%), indicating some pipeline cost pressure.
- → News flow is moderate — Focus remains on inflation and upcoming central bank decisions; no major shocks overnight.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK CPI YoY (Aug): 3.10% (Forecast: 3.10%, Previous: 2.90%) — In line with expectations, but marks a further rise.
- → UK Core CPI YoY (Aug): 2.60% (Forecast: 2.60%, Previous: 2.60%) — Unchanged and as expected.
- → UK PPI Output YoY (Aug): 3.70% (Forecast: 3.30%, Previous: 3.30%) — Above forecast, suggesting some cost pressure at the factory gate.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30 USD Retail Sales MoM: Forecast 0.80%
- → 19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision: Forecast 4.0% (Previous: 3.75%)
- → 19:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
- → 19:30 USD Fed Press Conference
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 17 Sep 12:00: BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
- → Fri 18 Sep 07:00: UK Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: -0.20%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates are essentially unchanged at the morning reset, with only minor moves of 1–3bp and no material curve shift. Short-end rates dipped slightly, while the long end nudged up by 1bp. With UK inflation rising as expected and the BoE decision due tomorrow, the market is pausing for breath. No immediate action required, but keep an eye on the next reset after the Fed and BoE.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the tea.