PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have surged across the curve at the AM reset, with double-digit increases at key maturities and the 10-year rate now at 6.48%.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates jump 10–11bp from 10y out, led by a sharp repricing in global bond markets and persistent inflation concerns.
PWLB rates spike: double-digit surge as bond rout intensifies
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.52% | +3bp |
| 3y | 5.88% | +6bp |
| 5y | 6.08% | +8bp |
| 10y | 6.48% | +11bp |
| 25y | 6.97% | +10bp |
| 50y | 6.68% | +11bp |
Parallel shift higher, with the largest moves from 10y out (+10–11bp).
WHAT MOVED
- → Long-end and belly surge — 10y, 25y, and 50y all up 10–11bp, with 5y up 8bp.
- → Front-end less extreme — 1y up 3bp, 3y up 6bp, but still firmly higher.
- → Parallel upward shift — No material flattening or steepening; the entire curve has repriced sharply higher.
CONTEXT
- → Global bond rout intensifies — US 10-year yields hit their highest since 2002, with persistent inflation and heavy government borrowing cited as drivers.
- → UK housing data soft — Nationwide House Prices MoM -0.20% (forecast 0.0%, prev 0.20%), YoY 0.80% (forecast 1.30%, prev 1.60%); below expectations, but overshadowed by global moves.
- → No major UK macro data driving gilts — The move is global in nature, with UK-specific releases playing little role.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Nationwide House Prices MoM — Actual: -0.20%, Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: 0.20%. Below expectations; signals further cooling in UK housing.
- → Nationwide House Prices YoY — Actual: 0.80%, Forecast: 1.30%, Previous: 1.60%. Annual growth halved; lowest since December last year.
- → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final — Actual: 51.9, Forecast: 52, Previous: 51.7. Slightly below forecast, minimal impact on rates.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 55. Closely watched for global bond sentiment.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Fri 2026-10-02 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.60%
- → Fri 2026-10-02 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 90K
- → Fri 2026-10-02 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have jumped 10–11bp from 10 years out, with the 10y now at 6.48% and 25y/50y at 6.97%/6.68%. This is a parallel upward shift, driven by a global bond sell-off and persistent inflation worries, not UK-specific data. If you have a live funding requirement, be aware that the next reset will reflect any further moves in gilts — and the window to lock current rates is narrow. Volatility is high; check official sources for any intraday developments.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every “new normal” the market has thrown at us.