PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields ended the day mixed, with short maturities rising and longer tenors falling, resulting in a modest flattening of the curve and a slight downward shift in most PWLB rates.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
- → 1y: 4.139% (+8bp) — front-end yields rose sharply.
- → 10y: 5.293% (-3bp) — belly yields declined modestly.
- → 30y: 5.886% (-5bp) — long-end led the rally.
- → Curve shape — pronounced flattening as short rates rose and long yields fell.
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.38% | +2bp |
| 5y | 5.90% | unch |
| 10y | 6.33% | unch |
| 25y | 6.83% | -2bp |
| 50y | 6.54% | -2bp |
WHAT DROVE TODAY
- → US labour market data: September Non-Farm Payrolls came in well below expectations (Actual: 29K, Forecast: 90K, Previous: 133K), with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% (Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%). This prompted a rally in global long-dated bonds.
- → Eurozone inflation: Flash CPI printed higher than forecast at 3.8% YoY (Forecast: 3.6%, Previous: 3.2%), but this had limited direct impact on UK rates.
- → No major UK data: Domestic releases were low-impact and did not drive gilt moves.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → Short-term PWLB rates edged higher, reflecting the rise in front-end gilt yields.
- → Longer-dated PWLB rates fell modestly, tracking the decline in long gilt yields.
- → Borrowing costs finished the day slightly lower for longer maturities, but marginally higher at the very short end.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Monday 09:30 — S&P Global Services PMI Final (Forecast: 51.7)
- → Monday 09:30 — S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Forecast: 51.7)
- → Tuesday 09:30 — S&P Global Construction PMI (Forecast: 45.5)
Markets responded to international data, with UK borrowing rates ending the week little changed overall but showing a flatter curve.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.