PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have moved higher across the curve at the AM reset, with front-end tenors up by 5bp and the long end firmer by 1–2bp.
⚠ RATE ALERT — Notable upward shift at the AM fix: 1–3y tenors +5bp, 5–15y +2–4bp, long end +1–2bp, as global bond yields remain elevated.
PWLB curve marches higher: front-end leads, long end follows
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.43% | +5bp |
| 3y | 5.75% | +5bp |
| 5y | 5.94% | +4bp |
| 10y | 6.35% | +2bp |
| 25y | 6.85% | +2bp |
| 50y | 6.56% | +2bp |
Parallel upward shift, with the front end leading gains.
What Moved
- → Front-end surge — 1y and 3y rates rose +5bp, outpacing the rest of the curve.
- → Belly and long end firmer — 5y up +4bp, 10y and longer maturities +1–2bp.
- → No material curve twist — Moves are broadly parallel, with a slight front-end bias.
Context
- → UK PMIs — S&P Global Services PMI Final: 52.1 (forecast 51.7, previous 52.5); Composite PMI Final: 52.0 (forecast 51.7, previous 52.5). Both slightly above expectations but lower than previous, offering limited support for gilts.
- → Global bond yields remain elevated — News flow highlights continued pressure on government bond markets, with references to a "global bond rout" and rising yields impacting risk assets.
- → No major UK-specific shocks — No single domestic headline driving the move; broader global rates environment is the main backdrop.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → S&P Global Services PMI Final — Actual: 52.1 (Forecast: 51.7, Previous: 52.5). Slightly above forecast, but lower than last month; limited impact on yields.
- → S&P Global Composite PMI Final — Actual: 52.0 (Forecast: 51.7, Previous: 52.5). Marginally stronger than expected, but not a major market mover.
Remaining Today
- → 15:00 USD ISM Services PMI — Forecast: 55.7 (Previous: 55.4). US data could influence global rates sentiment this afternoon.
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 7 Oct 19:00: USD FOMC Minutes — High impact; potential to move global yields.
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The AM PWLB reset brings a notable upward shift, with short-dated rates up +5bp and the long end firmer by 1–2bp. This is a parallel move, not a twist, and reflects ongoing global bond market pressure rather than any UK-specific shock. If you are planning to transact, be aware that the next reset will take its cue from any further moves in gilts, especially after this afternoon's US data and Wednesday's FOMC minutes. Stay alert for continued volatility.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.