PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — Notable upward move at the PM reset, with 5–7bp rises across the curve as gilt yields climb on the back of higher UK mortgage rates and a sharp repricing in the long end.
PWLB fixed rates reset at 12:24 with a clear upward shift: 5–7bp higher across all key tenors.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.48% — (+3bp)
- → 3y: 5.82% — (+4bp)
- → 5y: 6.03% — (+5bp)
- → 10y: 6.45% — (+5bp)
- → 25y: 6.96% — (+6bp)
- → 50y: 6.68% — (+7bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end up — 1y and 3y rates rose by +3bp and +4bp, respectively.
- → Belly and long end firmer — 5y to 50y tenors increased by +5bp to +7bp, with the largest moves at the long end.
- → Curve steepening — The move was slightly more pronounced beyond 15y, with 20y, 30y, 40y, and 50y all up +7bp.
CONTEXT
- → UK mortgage rates remain elevated — BBA Mortgage Rate held at 6.58%, with news confirming five-year fixes now averaging 6.00%.
- → Gilt auction clears at higher yield — 2031 gilt auction saw an average yield of 4.84%, up sharply from 4.28% previously.
- → IMF flags global debt and yield pressures — Commentary highlights record public debt and the impact of higher bond yields on budgets.
- → No single clear driver in today's inputs — Moves reflect a combination of domestic and global rate pressures.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tonight 19:00 — USD FOMC Minutes (HIGH): potential for further volatility if US rate expectations shift.
- → Tomorrow 00:01 — GBP RICS House Price Balance (MEDIUM), forecast -30% (prev -28%).
A clear upward reset this afternoon—keep an eye on the FOMC minutes for any further global rate pressure into tomorrow.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you blinked at noon, you missed the cheap window. Onward.