PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset this morning with a notable parallel shift higher across the curve, led by 5–6bp moves from 7 years out.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates rose 5–6bp across the mid and long end, with the 50-year up 6bp; no single data release explains the move.
PWLB curve jumps 5–6bp: mid and long maturities lead the charge
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.45% | unch |
| 3y | 5.78% | +2bp |
| 5y | 5.98% | +3bp |
| 10y | 6.40% | +5bp |
| 25y | 6.90% | +5bp |
| 50y | 6.61% | +6bp |
Parallel shift higher across the curve, with the largest moves in long maturities.
WHAT MOVED
- → Long end leads — 10y, 25y, and 50y all rose 5–6bp, marking the sharpest moves on the curve.
- → Short end steady — 1y unchanged; 3y and 5y up a modest 2–3bp.
- → Broad parallel shift — No inversion or flattening; the move is consistent across maturities.
CONTEXT
- → Lloyds House Price Index (07:00) — YoY actual 0.0% (forecast: -0.20%, prev: -0.40%); MoM actual 0.0% (forecast: 0.20%, prev: -0.30%). Both flat, slightly above expectations but not a major surprise for gilts.
- → No major UK macro news — News flow is dominated by energy, global debt, and property themes, but nothing directly driving gilts this morning.
- → Market tone — The move appears to reflect broader risk sentiment and global bond market pressures, not a single UK event.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Lloyds House Price Index YoY — Actual: 0.0% (Forecast: -0.20%, Previous: -0.40%). Slightly firmer than expected, but flat overall.
- → Lloyds House Price Index MoM — Actual: 0.0% (Forecast: 0.20%, Previous: -0.30%). No change, marginally below forecast.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 10:00 — BBA Mortgage Rate (Forecast: 6.60%)
- → 19:00 — USD FOMC Minutes (HIGH)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Wed 2026-10-09 15:00: USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — Forecast: 47.6
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has shifted up sharply this morning, with 10–50 year rates rising 5–6bp and the 50-year now at 6.61%. This is a notable move, with the long end leading and no single UK data point to blame. If you are monitoring for the next reset, be aware that current levels are materially higher than yesterday. Stay alert for any further volatility around the FOMC minutes this evening.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing steeper than the curve is the coffee.