PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest upward shift across the curve, with 2–3bp moves at most key tenors.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:35 PM reset are up 2–3bp across most maturities; little changed in directional terms, but the curve is marking a steady, moderate rise.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.49% (+2bp)
- → 3y — 5.83% (+2bp)
- → 5y — 6.02% (+2bp)
- → 10y — 6.42% (+2bp)
- → 25y — 6.90% (+2bp)
- → 50y — 6.60% (+2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end and belly (1–15y) all up +2bp, with 7y and 15y slightly firmer at +3bp.
- → Long end (30–50y) firmer by +1 to +2bp, with the 30y up +1bp and 40y/50y both +2bp.
CONTEXT
- → No major UK data releases so far today; only a low-impact BoE speech this morning.
- → News flow dominated by fiscal commentary: IFS warns of a £35bn gap in UK spending plans, with inflation pressures at a three-year high and public finances under scrutiny ahead of the Budget.
- → Global backdrop: Oil prices remain volatile amid Middle East tensions and US-Russia energy headlines, but no single clear driver for today's modest gilt move.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 13:50: BoE Mann Speech (LOW impact).
- → Tomorrow 00:01: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MEDIUM, forecast 0.70%).
Curve is nudging higher but nothing disorderly—just a steady repricing as fiscal and inflation risks stay in focus.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the Budget could be reset as easily as the PWLB curve.