PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have eased modestly across the curve at the AM reset, with moves of 1–4bp lower led by the long end.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates down 1–4bp across all maturities, with the largest moves in the 15–40 year tenors. No major data or news driver evident.
PWLB curve softens as market awaits key data: nothing dramatic, but long end leads the drift
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.47% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.81% | -1bp |
| 5y | 6.00% | -2bp |
| 10y | 6.40% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.88% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.58% | -3bp |
Mild parallel shift lower, with slightly larger moves in the 15–40 year sector.
What Moved
- → Long end leads — 15y, 20y, 25y, 30y, and 40y tenors all down 3–4bp, outpacing the short end.
- → Short and intermediate — 1y and 3y tenors down just 1bp, 5y and 10y by 2bp.
- → No sharp curve moves — The shift is broadly parallel, with a slight bias to the long end.
Context
- → No significant UK data released yet today — The calendar is empty for high/medium impact UK releases so far.
- → News flow is light — No major UK macro or gilt-specific headlines in the morning press; market appears to be drifting ahead of upcoming data.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
- → 10:30 — BoE Breeden Speech (LOW impact)
- → 13:50 — BoE Mann Speech (LOW impact)
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 13 Oct 07:00: GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
- → Tue 13 Oct 07:00: GBP GDP 3-Month Avg — Forecast: 0.40%
- → Wed 14 Oct 13:30: USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.50%
- → Wed 14 Oct 13:30: USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.70%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have nudged 1–4bp lower at the AM reset, with the largest moves in the 15–40 year area. No major data or news is driving the move; this looks like a gentle drift ahead of key macro releases later in the week. If you have funding to execute, note that the long end is marginally more attractive than at Friday's close, but the overall change is modest.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.