PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates saw minimal movement at the PM reset, with only minor changes at the front end and a single basis point dip at 25 years.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:33 PM reset are little changed, with the curve broadly steady and only small moves at the short and long ends.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.48% (+2bp)
- → 3y: 5.79% (+2bp)
- → 5y: 5.96% (+1bp)
- → 10y: 6.32% (unch)
- → 25y: 6.78% (-1bp)
- → 50y: 6.48% (unch)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end firmer: 1y and 3y both up (+2bp), 5y up (+1bp).
- → Long end steady: 10y and 50y unchanged; 25y down (-1bp).
CONTEXT
- → UK GDP (Aug): +0.10% MoM (vs -0.10% f/c), 3m avg +0.70% (vs 0.50% f/c), both ahead of expectations.
- → Manufacturing/Industrial: Both posted solid upside surprises (Manufacturing Production MoM +1.20% vs -0.10% f/c).
- → Newsflow: UK growth beat forecasts but remains sluggish; markets remain focused on inflation and upcoming Budget risks.
LOOK AHEAD
- → 13:30 (today): US PPI MoM (HIGH) – forecast +0.50%.
- → 13:30 (today): US Retail Sales MoM (HIGH) – forecast +0.30%.
- → Tomorrow 03:00: BoE Governor Bailey speech (MEDIUM).
- → Tomorrow 04:30: Fed Chair Warsh speech (HIGH).
PWLB rates remain broadly steady after a modestly firmer UK data set; eyes now turn to US inflation and retail figures this afternoon.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the rest of the week could be this uneventful.