PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply lower this morning, with 5–8bp declines across the curve after stronger-than-expected UK GDP data.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates fell 5–8bp across all maturities, led by the long end, following UK data surprises.
PWLB rates tumble as UK growth beats forecasts
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.46% | -4bp |
| 3y | 5.77% | -6bp |
| 5y | 5.95% | -6bp |
| 10y | 6.32% | -7bp |
| 25y | 6.79% | -7bp |
| 50y | 6.48% | -8bp |
Parallel shift lower, with slightly larger declines at the long end.
What Moved
- → Long end leads — 40y and 50y rates dropped 8bp, outpacing the 4–7bp declines elsewhere.
- → Broad-based move — All key maturities fell at least 4bp, with no part of the curve spared.
Context
- → UK GDP MoM (Aug): +0.10% actual (forecast -0.10%, prev +0.40%) — growth surprised to the upside, countering expectations of contraction.
- → UK GDP 3-Month Avg: +0.70% (forecast +0.50%, prev +0.50%) — further evidence of resilience.
- → Manufacturing & Industrial Production: Both beat forecasts sharply, adding to the positive surprise.
- → News flow: Market coverage focused on the upside UK growth surprise; little else materially affecting gilts this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → GDP MoM (07:00): Actual +0.10% (Forecast -0.10%, Prev +0.40%) — stronger than expected, supporting the move lower in rates.
- → GDP 3-Month Avg (07:00): Actual +0.70% (Forecast +0.50%, Prev +0.50%) — further upside surprise.
- → Manufacturing Production MoM (07:00): Actual +1.20% (Forecast -0.10%, Prev +1.0%) — well above expectations.
- → Industrial Production MoM (07:00): Actual +0.80% (Forecast -0.10%, Prev +0.30%) — another positive surprise.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30 USD PPI MoM: Forecast +0.50% (Prev +0.40%) — may influence global rates if a large surprise emerges.
- → 13:30 USD Retail Sales MoM: Forecast +0.30% (Prev +1.20%)
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 2026-10-16 04:30: USD Fed Chair Warsh Speech — (no forecast)
- → Fri 2026-10-16 03:00: GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech — (no forecast)
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have dropped 5–8bp across the curve at the AM reset, with the long end leading the move. This is a notable parallel shift lower, driven by UK GDP and production data surprising to the upside. If you have near-term funding needs, be aware that the next reset will reflect any further market moves after today's US data. Monitor live gilt pricing if you are considering timing for the PM window.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.