Afternoon Rate Update

PWLB fixed rates at the 12:34 PM reset fell by 4–6bp across the curve, with the 10y now at 6.05% (-4bp); the move is broad-based and reflects ongoing market sensitivity to energy and policy news.

PWLB PM SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 5.32% (-5bp)
• → 3y: 5.45% (-6bp)
• → 5y: 5.58% (-5bp)
• → 10y: 6.05% (-4bp)
• → 25y: 6.63% (-4bp)
• → 50y: 6.43% (-4bp)

WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING

• → Front end and belly — 1y to 5y tenors cut by 5–6bp, with the largest move at 3y (-6bp).
• → Long end — 10y and beyond marked down by 4bp.

CONTEXT

• → Bank of England — MPC held rates at 3.75% (8–1 vote), but signalled possible future hikes if energy shocks persist.
• → Energy markets — Brent crude remains elevated at $126/barrel, sustaining inflation and rate expectations.
• → European data — Eurozone Q1 GDP growth was flat or slightly positive; inflation readings remain above target.
• → No single clear driver — Moves reflect a mix of central bank caution and ongoing energy/geopolitical risks.

LOOK AHEAD

• → Today 13:15 — ECB Interest Rate Decision (forecast: 2.15%)
• → Today 13:30 — US Core PCE Price Index MoM (forecast: 0.30%)
• → Tomorrow 07:00 — UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (forecast: -0.30%)
• → Tomorrow 09:30 — UK Mortgage Approvals (forecast: 60K)

A busy session for rates, with the PWLB curve marked lower across all maturities as markets digest central bank signals and ongoing energy market stress.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re waiting for a dull day, you’ll have to wait a bit longer.