PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates nudged 1–2bp lower across most maturities at the 12:19 reset; overall, a quiet session.
PWLB fixed rates at the PM set saw minor declines across the curve, with little changed in overall direction.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 4.97% (-2bp)
- → 3y — 5.12% (-1bp)
- → 5y — 5.27% (unch)
- → 10y — 5.73% (-1bp)
- → 25y — 6.34% (-1bp)
- → 50y — 6.15% (-2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end — 1y and 50y both down (-2bp); 3y, 10y, 25y all down (-1bp); 5y unchanged.
- → Curve shape — Slight parallel shift lower; no material steepening or flattening.
CONTEXT
- → UK data — CBI Distributive Trades fell sharply (actual: -54 vs forecast: -41), suggesting weaker retail sentiment.
- → Gilt auction — 2029 conventional gilt auction cleared at 4.06% (down from 4.42% previously), consistent with softer yields.
- → Market backdrop — News flow highlights oil prices dropping to pre-war levels and a three-month high in gilt returns, but no single clear driver for today's modest move.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 13:30 — US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (forecast: 1.60%) and US Core PCE Price Index MoM (forecast: 0.30%) could influence global rates sentiment.
- → No further high/medium UK releases — Calendar is otherwise quiet into Friday.
A gentle drift lower in PWLB rates this afternoon, with no single factor dominating the narrative.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all afternoons were this straightforward.